The UK Government has unveiled sweeping changes to the immigration system in a white paper aimed at reducing net international migration, which reached a record 906,000 in 2023 before falling to 728,000 in 2024.
The proposed reforms are expected to cut net migration by approximately 100,000 annually. While the government has avoided setting a firm target, the measures mark a significant tightening of the current system.
Key Policy Changes
The reforms introduce a range of restrictions, including:
Social Care: Overseas recruitment for social care workers will be phased out by 2028.
Skilled Worker Visas: Qualification requirements will rise from RQF level 3 (A-level equivalent) to RQF level 6 (degree level), alongside a higher salary threshold. Scotland uses a different framework, the SCQF, but will be impacted nonetheless.
Graduate Visas: The duration of post-study visas for international graduates will be reduced from two years to 18 months.
Language Requirements: Tougher English language standards will apply, including for dependents.
Enforcement: Visa compliance checks will be strengthened, and deportation processes for criminal offenders streamlined.
Settlement: The residency period required for indefinite leave to remain will double from five to ten years.
Immigration Fees: Employers sponsoring visas will face increased charges.
The UK Government also plans to invest in training and upskilling domestic workers, though specifics have yet to be outlined.
Scotland: A Distinct Impact
While the UK-wide implications are clearer, the consequences for Scotland remain uncertain. However, early concerns have emerged about potential disruptions in key sectors such as social care and higher education.
Scotland typically receives a smaller proportion of total UK immigration. In the year to June 2023, net international migration to Scotland stood at approximately 48,000, with over half of arrivals concentrated in Glasgow and Edinburgh.
Following Brexit, the demographic profile of migrants has shifted, with a growing share arriving from outside the EU. The 2022 Census found that nearly 40% of Scotland residents born in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, the Americas or the Caribbean had lived in the UK for less than five years, compared to just 23% of those from Europe or Oceania.
Given Scotland’s 5.7% share of UK net migration from 2020 to 2023, the expected reduction could translate into a decrease of around 5,700 migrants annually—roughly 12% of net migration to Scotland in 2022–23.
Demographic and Labour Market Consequences
Scotland’s population growth has relied heavily on international migration and is projected to continue doing so until at least 2047. Migrants tend to be younger and more likely to have children, helping offset the challenges posed by an ageing native-born population.
In the workforce, migrants play a vital role—particularly in health and social care. According to the 2022 Census, 12% of Scotland’s health and social work professionals were born outside the UK. Across the UK, non-British nationals make up 25% of the adult social care workforce, according to Skills for Care.
Vacancies in Scotland’s care sector have been rising again following a post-pandemic lull. The Coalition of Care and Support Providers in Scotland (CCPS) has warned that ending overseas recruitment for social care could exacerbate workforce shortages.
Higher Education at Risk
Scotland’s universities may also feel the strain. Curtailing the Graduate visa could deter international students, who are vital to institutional finances. Restrictions introduced under the previous Conservative government already limited students’ ability to bring dependents.
The proportion of postgraduate students from overseas at Scottish universities rose from 44% in 2019/20 to 53% in 2023/24, outpacing the UK average. The share of international undergraduates has held steady at 15–16%.
Prospective students who hope to remain in the UK after graduation may reconsider their options if they doubt their ability to meet Skilled Worker visa salary thresholds. Previous analysis shows typical Scottish graduate salaries may fall short of new requirements.
Fiscal and Economic Outlook
The Scottish Government faces budgetary constraints, and the reforms may intensify economic pressures without providing compensatory benefits.
Immigration fee revenue is retained by the Home Office and does not generate additional funding for Scotland. However, if UK Government spending increases on training in England and Wales, the devolved Scottish Government could receive a share through the Barnett formula.
Migrants also contribute positively to public finances. They are, on average, younger and more likely to work, expanding the tax base. Those without indefinite leave to remain often pay significant visa and healthcare fees and are not entitled to most public benefits.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects that immigration will be a net positive for UK growth over the next five years. The UK Government, however, has suggested it may ask the OBR to reconsider how immigration’s fiscal impact is calculated, citing longer-term pressures as migrants age.
What Comes Next
The proposed changes are subject to parliamentary debate and may be revised. Observers in Scotland are closely monitoring the outcome of these discussions, particularly the government’s approach to training domestic workers and the OBR’s evolving stance on immigration’s economic role.
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