Europe is grappling with a demographic shift that could significantly impact its societies and economies in the coming decades. According to a new study from Bruegel, a Brussels-based economic policy think tank, Europe’s population is set to decline starting in 2026, due to a combination of lower birth rates and reduced immigration. This trend is expected to vary widely across the continent, with some regions facing more severe challenges than others.
A Shrinking and Ageing Population
The European Union is poised for a significant demographic shift, as its population is expected to steadily decrease due to fewer births and diminishing immigration flows. While some regions will experience this decline more acutely, all EU member states are likely to feel the effects.
By 2050, 35% of the EU population is projected to be over the age of 65, compared to just 21% in 2022. This stark change poses considerable challenges, particularly as the number of people aged 85 and older—the fastest-growing age group in Europe—continues to rise. David Pinkus, a Bruegel affiliate fellow and co-author of the study, noted that the increasing number of elderly citizens will place significant pressure on social policies, especially long-term care.
Regional Variations and Economic Impacts
The study analyzed two key factors influencing Europe’s population changes: natural population change (births minus deaths) and migration patterns. The authors categorized EU countries into four distinct groups based on their migration history and demographic trends.
Western and Northern Europe: Countries such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands have transitioned from emigration to immigration regions since the mid-20th century.
Southern Europe: Countries like Italy and Spain, historically exporters of people, began experiencing significant immigration in the 1990s but faced new waves of emigration during the 2008 financial crisis.
Eastern Europe: Following the Cold War and the expansion of the European Union, countries in this region saw major outflows of people, particularly young and skilled workers.
The report highlights a concerning demographic outlook for Eastern Europe, where rapid population decline, workforce shortages, and economic stagnation could become more pronounced. High levels of emigration, particularly among young, skilled individuals, are exacerbating these issues.
Country-Specific Projections
Some countries are expected to see population growth by 2050, including Austria, Spain, Sweden, Belgium, and Ireland. However, only Sweden, Ireland, Luxembourg, and Cyprus, along with Norway and Iceland, are projected to experience natural population growth during this period. Net migration is expected to rise across the EU, with a few exceptions in Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania.
Countries like France and Germany will likely see close to zero population growth, while other nations will experience a decline.
The Ageing Workforce
Europe is also facing an ageing workforce. The proportion of people aged 85 and above will more than double by 2050, from 3% to 6%, with projections reaching nearly 8% by 2070. All EU countries will experience substantial increases in the percentage of their population aged 65 and over by 2050. While this is a remarkable achievement in terms of life expectancy, it poses significant challenges. As the elderly population grows, so too will the demand for pensions and long-term care services—services that a smaller workforce will be able to provide.
Decline in the Working-Age Population
The study warns that 22 of the EU’s 27 countries will see a decline in their working-age population (aged 20 to 64) by 2050. The under-20 age group will also decrease, except in Sweden, Malta, and Luxembourg. These trends could lead to labor market imbalances, which may be mitigated by longer working years, increased female workforce participation, and more immigration.
Regional disparities within countries will likely grow, with rural areas facing greater challenges due to depopulation. Limited economic opportunities, coupled with inadequate access to education, childcare, and healthcare, will exacerbate these challenges.
Policy Recommendations
The study suggests several policy changes to mitigate these demographic challenges. The authors argue that maintaining the current labor force and preventing population decline should remain a priority for most EU governments.
Western and Northern Europe: Policymakers should focus on integrating immigrants into the labor market and supporting rural development.
Southern Europe: Countries in this region should strengthen family-friendly policies, improve immigrant integration, and invest in regional infrastructure to provide more opportunities for young people.
Eastern Europe: Efforts should be made to retain talent, attract immigrants in sectors facing labor shortages, and increase workforce participation among women and older workers.
Pension reforms and attracting workers to the long-term care sector will also be crucial. Pinkus emphasized the importance of supporting informal carers, often women, who provide much of the care for the elderly, and reducing the sector’s reliance on informal care.
In conclusion, Europe’s demographic shifts present significant challenges, but with targeted policies to integrate immigrants, retain talent, and adapt to an ageing population, the continent can work towards ensuring its economic and social stability in the coming decades.
Related topics:
- Quebec Calls for Federal Immigration Cuts, Sparking Concern Among Businesses
- Hong Kong Defends Immigration Policy After UK MP Denied Entry
- Strict Immigration Enforcement and Its Impact: A Dual Perspective
